property prices and comparison with other countries.
INTRODUCTION
When buying properties in a country, either for holiday-home, or for investment, one person should have an initial general knowledge of how is the property market in that country.
So here I present some general info about the property market in Italy, with some historical data, and current situation. And with a final forecast for the future growth, as always useful to know for buyers.
HISTORICAL DATA
An interesting characteristic of the Italian real estate market, is that the property price has low price fluctuations year on year.
I report this info as I compare it with what happened in the past 20 years in Europe. Where some countries have seen big increases in price before 2008, than a big downturn with prices going down even up to 80% in some markets, than are up now again to crazy high prices.
The historical data of Italy present a more stable market. I found some data in real estate websites in Italy.
Analyzing the Fluctuations
To explain the table, where in blue are indicated real prices, and in red the number of property sales, starting by giving value 100 to year 1993:
- prices increased gradually up to 1993 (info not reported in the table above)
- from 1993 to 1999 there are has been a contraction of 19.2% on prices
- from 2000 to 2007 has been a growth period, with prices up 32.6%
- following the American market collapse in 2008, prices decreased 24.1% up to 2015
- from 2017 prices started to rise again
Other interesting info are in this table below, taken from data of ISTAT, the Italian Statistic Institute of the Government.
It shows variation on house prices taking as value point year 2015 with a value of 100.
Interesting as also present the data for old properties compared to newly built ones. Italy has lots of old houses, that are even centuries old, with some finely restructured even to luxury standard. Whilst new ones are made now using most advanced standards for building and energy efficiency, so cost more to build.
2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
All properties | 118.1 | 119.7 | 116.7 | 109.1 | 104 | 100 | 100.3 | 99.2 | 98.6 | 98.5 | 100.4 | 103 | 106.9 |
New properties | 100.8 | 104 | 106.3 | 104.8 | 102 | 100 | 100.7 | 100 | 101.1 | 102.3 | 104.5 | 108.5 | 115.5 |
Old properties | 126.8 | 127.3 | 121.4 | 110.9 | 104.7 | 100 | 100.1 | 98.9 | 98 | 97.6 | 99.4 | 101.6 | 105.1 |
With these data we can see how the property price changed little over the years. And, more interesting, as after the 2008 crisis, whilst in Europe house prices kept rising to new heights, in Italy it started to grow again just in recent years, to a rate not even matching the inflation rate. And this, from my point of view, shows that prices are still low!
FUTURE TREND
This is a period where is particularly difficult to make forecasts with all the wars and uncertainties that are in the world.
Still I try to give my opinion. Mostly based on reports I read in 2022, based on data from 2021. From the European report of Remax real estate, Eurostat and others.
Already in 2021 they were considering many countries in Europe on a property bubble. And I believe, with prices still on the rise in the past couple of years, are even more on a bubble.
Whilst they were expecting growth of 5% for Italy in 2022, and more later. It happened, still at the end kind of zeroed if we consider the inflation.
Therefore I believe that prices will keep rising in Italy. And, whilst I do not dare to make predictions, I would not be surprised if the property bubble will bust in many other countries. With prices going down even more than 50% in some places, as happened in other crisis.
Whilst in Italy prices should keep at least as is, not going down, whilst personally I expect them to increase.
HOUSE OWNERSHIP
Other interesting data to know, is that in Italy 75% to 80% of people owns the house where they live. In particular even among the 20% poorest families, house ownership is over 55%. Whilst for all other families is over 84%. That is a remarkable data. And also explains why property price is relatively stable over time.
Also less than 20% of the Italian population buy a house using a mortgage, according to Eurostat data of 2015. And property investments-ownership is half the wealth of Italian people.
These are factors that I consider positively as indicator of stability in the real estate market in Italy. Especially as for me property investment should be made as safe investment with potential of growth over time, and with little risk of loosing money.
RENTAL AND ITS TAXATION
As in most countries, best property investments are always those made in “university” cities.
In Italy this even more, as is a lot easier to “kick out” student tenants if they do not pay the rent, instead of a family (that in Italy might take months to be evicted).
Regarding taxation on rental income, the owner can decide how to do it. I indicate the 3 main ways:
- add it to the personal income, and having it taxed together. Italian taxation is a progressive system, starting from a minimum taxation of 23% with income up to Euro 15,000 per year, to a maximum of 43% for income above Euro 50,000 per year.
- A flat tax of 21% for normal rental, recently raised to 26%.
- A flat tax of 10% for special price rental. This is a particular contract that is stipulated giving a lower price to tenants. It can be worth it in particular situations.
Is also useful to point out that town property tax is paid by the owner, whilst rubbish tax, management fees, and utilities, are passed on to the tenants.
As final info, in a university city like Pisa, can expect to rent to students with a net return of 3% to 5% per year. This often is not considered high return by some foreigners as in other markets can get even more than 5%. But than there is always ups and downs of the market.
As usual, a safer investment, usually pays out less profits. Still has little risk.
So keep all these info in mind when looking at the property market in Italy. And wait to read more in next posts.
REAL ESTATE, INVESTING OR LIVING IN ITALY Part 1
I decided to prepare and post some articles to explain why I consider Italy an excellent choice also for property investment destination for foreigners. Usually foreigners look at properties in Italy when they fell in love with the country. So they want to have a holiday home to go to when have time, or eventually a home for when they retire, to move to live in Italy for several months each year, if not even permanently.
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